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Picket Fence Preview Market Update


Fall 2022 [September & October)


11/12/22 - Traditionally, as the weather cools, so does the real estate market.  This year the Feds sped up the cooling by pumping the brakes on inflation, increasing interest rates both in September and most recently, November 2nd.  As expected, buyer demand has slowed in response now that 30 year mortgage interest rates are hovering around 7%. 

 

 

Whenever there is a significant increase in interest rates, predictably more deals fall through due to financing.  We’ve seen a couple instances of that this fall with Picket Fence sellers, but in each case they are able to consummate another sale pretty quickly thereafter.  Most PFP sellers are still seeing a healthy response to their ads, and have back-up offers in the wings when deals fall through.  While all cash offers are still happening, they are no longer the norm.  The market is settling down to a more normal pace and asking prices are beginning to come down.  This is certainly good for the long term sustainability of the housing market!

 

"Good news! We just accepted an offer!  Market has slowed down remarkably... We had about 10 showings. Most were very interested, a few had to back out of the market after revisiting their budget/ new interest rates.  Still had a few cash buyers (or buyers with a lot of cash to put down) and interest from buyers with financing, but they didn't want to pay market price and are definitely looking for a deal. Mostly had interest from agents from the MLS, although we did have a showing from someone who saw it on your (PFP) website and did just get 2 more hits since we received the offer. Overall, great experience with Picket Fence.  Thanks!"
- Michaela D.,  Georgia  10/17/22  AP= $525,000

 

Fall 2022 -
Vt County  Ave. Time on Market  Ave. % Asking Price Received
Chittenden    13 days 105.8%
Franklin 25.5 days 99.4%
Grand Isle 28 days* not reported
Washington 18.3 days 97.7%
Windsor 15 days* 100%
New Hampshire    
Grafton Cty (Land) 2 years* 100%
*based on one sale    




"We closed last Thursday, for our Asking Price! We sold to a local buyer who was working with a buyer's agent from Williston. Fortunately our buyers locked in to their interest rate before it went up again...
Thank you for everything, Toni. You and Bill were very helpful. " -- Ginny G., Richmond  10/17/22  AP $675,000 SP $675,000


"Thank you so much for your help. Fingers crossed things continue to go smoothly. The buyer was through a broker, which found it on Picket Fences... and I have two or more back-ups. I had a lot of traffic at my two open houses last week, lots of neighbors with friends and family interested.  Thank you, this really worked out well, on many levels!' -- Andrea Regan 10/18/22 Shelburne condo. Offer substantially above Asking Price of $375,000. 


"Thank you!!! Fingers crossed everything goes well.  Their inspection is scheduled for this week. Yes, the buyer is the person I had mentioned was coming to look at it who I believe first saw your (PFP) yard sign, then went online to look at the ad. My sister showed it to her and her realtor, and she reached out that same day saying they would have an offer the next day. Thank you for all of your help. Hopefully, everything goes well. If not, I’ll be in touch. Again, thank you! Especially for your help in writing the ad. You are a pleasure to work with."

Jody Fewer, Berlin, VT   UC 10/26/22   AP = $349,000


"It took a long time, but we did get our asking price. After two years with some interest but no offers, we then received 3 offers in 2 days!" 

Deborah Jean Burke Orford NH, Oct 18, 2022, AP = $389,000 (14.9 acres)



*Summer 2022* -  Since June, when we noted the Vermont market was showing signs of slowing, we have (gratefully) seen a steadying of the market, similar to what is happening in other parts of the country. Home values remain at record high levels, but the rate of home price appreciation appears to be plateauing. This is good news for everyone -- especially buyers!



As interest rates began to rise this summer, it caused some buyers to drop out of the market, or to adjust their sights on less expensive homes.  As such, even with more homes entering  the market, the number of buyers bidding on each property was less frenzied. Fewer cash offers were reported, as well as more offers with contingencies.  This trend continued through July and August.



Demand remains good throughout Vermont however, as the number of homes on the market in Vermont is still well short of normal. Interestingly, the number of Picket Fence sales actually increased during the summer from the crazy market we had this spring!  Picket Fence sellers are still averaging sale times of well under 30 days, but are less apt to get offers over their asking prices than during the spring.  The average for most counties is at 100% of asking price.



Below are Picket Fence sellers’ Time on the Market and Asking price to Sales price ratios per county from June - August 2022:


Vermont County  Ave. Time on Market      Ave. % AP received
Addison 20 days 100.2%
Chittenden 13.5 days 100%
Franklin 17 days 94.7%
Grand Isle 27 days* 100%*
Lamoille 28 days* not reported
Orleans 2 days* 103.2%*
Rutland 18.5 days 100%
Washington 17.5 days 101.3%
Windsor 12 days

101.3%

*based on one sale

Source: Picket Fence Preview gathers this data from communication with its customers.

 



Average number of visits to PicketFencePreview.com in 2021 & 2022

 

Q1 Jan-Mar 2022 Q2 Apr-Jun 2022 Q3 Jul-Sep 2022 Q4 Oct-Dec 2021
49,449/mo 54,158/mo 44,124/mo 46,874/mo

 

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